A model is never better than the data it is based on, the initialization, and parameter values. In this case
As far as I can see your parameter setting do not take account at all for the impact that policies had on R0. You are using an R0 of 3.65. This might be correct (no one knows). However, we know that there has been several policies introduced and that these have affected the effective “R0”. We know that this effective R0 i closer to 1 than 3.65, see COVID-19 - R0 and Herd Immunity - are we getting closer? and COVID-19 policy simulator: can you find the perfect policy? .